Chen Lian

• NEWImporting Aggregate Demand

  (with Dmitry Mukhin and Christian Wolf)

• NEWSophisticated Borrowing Constraints and Macroeconomic Dynamics

  (with Mahdi Ebsim, Yueran Ma, Pablo Ottonello, and Diego Perez)

• NEWMonetary-Fiscal Interactions: A Reappraisal

  (with George-Marios Angeletos, Christian Wolf, and Dalton Zhang)

• UPDATEDeficits and Inflation: HANK meets FTPL

  (with George-Marios Angeletos and Christian Wolf)

• PreliminaryForecasting Inflation with Microdata: An Adaptive Machine Learning Approach

  (with Catherine Chen, Chen Gao, Jonathon Hazell, and Lihua Lei)

• PreliminaryThe Macroeconomic Effect of AI: Sizing the Software Engineering Channel

  (with Alex Blumenfeld, Jonathon Hazell, and Andreas Schaab)

Under Revision

• Fiscal Inaction as Monetary Support

  (with George-Marios Angeletos and Christian Wolf)

  R&R at Econometrica

• Borrowing Constraints, Markups, and Misallocation

  (with Huiyu Li, Yueran Ma and Emily Martell)

  R&R at Review of Economic Studies

• FINALBeliefs about the Economy are Excessively Sensitive to Household-level Shocks: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data

  (with Dmitry Taubinsky, Luigi Butera and Matteo Saccarola)

  Forthcoming, Quarterly Journal of Economics

• FINALWhy do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs

  (with Joao Guerreiro, Jonathon Hazell and Christina Patterson) [Supplementary Appendix]

  Forthcoming, Econometrica

• The Economics of Financial Stress

  (with Dmitriy Sergeyev and Yuriy Gorodnichenko)

  October 2025, Review of Economic Studies

• NEWBankruptcy Resolution and Credit Cycles

  (with Martin Kornejew, Yueran Ma, Pablo Ottonello, and Diego Perez)

  NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2024

• Can Deficits Finance Themselves?

  (with George-Marios Angeletos and Christian Wolf) [Additional Materials]

  September 2024, Econometrica

• Mistakes in Future Consumption, High MPCs Now

  December 2023, American Economic Review: Insights

• Determinacy without the Taylor Principle

  (with George-Marios Angeletos) [Slides]

  August 2023, Journal of Political Economy

• SURVEYDampening General Equilibrium: Incomplete Information and Bounded Rationality

  (with George-Marios Angeletos)

  January 2023, Handbook of Economic Expectations (This subsumes an older version of Dampening General Equilibrium.)

• Confidence and the Propagation of Demand Shocks

  (with George-Marios Angeletos) [Slides] [Online Appendix]

  May 2022, Review of Economic Studies

• A Theory of Narrow Thinking

  [Online Appendix] [Short Slides]

  October 2021, Review of Economic Studies (Feature Article)

• Anatomy of Corporate Borrowing Constraints

  (with Yueran Ma) [Online Appendix]

  February 2021, Quarterly Journal of Economics

• Low Interest Rates and Risk Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions

  (with Yueran Ma and Carmen Wang) [Survey Appendix]

  June 2019, Review of Financial Studies (Lead Article)

• Forward Guidance without Common Knowledge

  (with George-Marios Angeletos) [Online Appendix]

  September 2018, American Economic Review

• Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination

  (with George-Marios Angeletos)

  October 2016, Handbook of Macroeconomics, Volume 2